Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Analysis — Probabli.AI
AI-powered analysis for HOG (Harley-Davidson, Inc.): probabilistic price forecasts, technical signals, peer comparison, institutional ownership, earnings history, and social sentiment. Latest AI outlook: Neutral.
Last price: $30.19 · Market cap: $3.1B · AI outlook: Neutral
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) presents a classic mature value narrative characterized by strong brand heritage and robust cash generation balanced against structural demographic headwinds. The stock trades near the top of its 52-week range ($30.18 vs. $31.12), having appreciated over 70% from its cyclical low of $17.09. However, top-line growth is projected to contract (-0.7%), and execution…
Probabilistic 1-Year Outlook
- Bull 25% · Neutral 45% · Bear 30%
- 1-year price estimates — P10: $22 / P50: $31 / P90: $39
- HOG is trading near its 52-week high ($30.18 vs $31.12) following a sharp relief rally, but fundamental headwinds persist. Negative revenue growth (-0.7%), an average EPS surprise of -7.7%, and existential concerns…
5-Year Outlook
- Bull 30% · Neutral 45% · Bear 25%
- 5-year price estimates — P10: $20 / P50: $39 / P90: $58
SWOT Highlights
- Strength: Iconic brand loyalty with commanding domestic market share in heavyweight motorcycles
- Strength: High operating margins on touring and large cruiser segments supported by premium pricing power
- Risk: Heavy reliance on an aging core customer demographic in North America
- Risk: Struggling electrification initiative with LiveWire burning capital and facing survival risks
Major Catalysts
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Analyst Coverage & Dividends
15 Wall Street analysts rate HOG a BUY with a mean price target of $28.56. Harley-Davidson, Inc. currently pays a dividend with a yield of approximately 2.50%.
Last analyzed · Model: gemini-3.8-flash. How this forecast works · Accuracy & validation.
HOG forecast details · HOG sentiment details · HOG insider activity
Recent saved forecast research
AI-generated research records, not evaluated investment results.
- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) — saved
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) presents a classic mature value narrative characterized by strong brand heritage and robust cash generation balanced against structural demographic headwinds. The stock trades near the top of its 52-week ra
- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) — saved
Harley-Davidson is navigating the motorcycle industry's dynamic environment with strategic moves, particularly its electrification efforts and sustainability focus. Despite facing competitive and operational challenges, the brand's strong m
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