Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) Stock Analysis — Probabli.AI
AI-powered analysis for MAA (Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.): probabilistic price forecasts, technical signals, peer comparison, institutional ownership, earnings history, and social sentiment. Latest AI outlook: Bullish.
Last price: $116.75 · Market cap: $13.9B · AI outlook: Bullish
Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) offers an asymmetric total return profile at current price levels near $116.75, which sits within 3% of its 52-week low. The equity has been weighed down by the largest wave of new multifamily unit deliveries to hit the Sunbelt in four decades, triggering price target downgrades across Wall Street. However, these headwinds are largely priced in.…
Probabilistic 1-Year Outlook
- Bull 55% · Neutral 30% · Bear 15%
- 1-year price estimates — P10: $102 / P50: $133 / P90: $152
- MAA trades near its 52-week low ($116.75 vs. $113.95 low), depressed by cyclical Sunbelt apartment new-construction supply deliveries. With 26 analysts maintaining a consensus BUY and an average target near $137 (+17.3%…
5-Year Outlook
- Bull 60% · Neutral 25% · Bear 15%
- 5-year price estimates — P10: $110 / P50: $178 / P90: $224
SWOT Highlights
- Strength: Pristine A-/A3 investment grade balance sheet with low leverage and manageable debt maturities
- Strength: Premier Sunbelt portfolio concentrated in high-job-growth, business-friendly submarkets
- Risk: Subdued near-term organic revenue growth (~1.2%) driven by heavy multi-family unit deliveries
- Risk: Elevated GAAP payout ratio (178.9%) reflecting heavy non-cash real estate depreciation
Major Catalysts
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Analyst Coverage & Dividends
26 Wall Street analysts rate MAA a BUY with a mean price target of $136.94. Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. currently pays a dividend with a yield of approximately 5.24%.
Last analyzed · Model: gemini-3.8-flash. How this forecast works · Accuracy & validation.
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