Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) Stock Forecast 2026: P10, P50 & P90 — Probabli.AI
Timestamped AUPH stock forecast with 1-year P10, P50, and P90 price estimates, scenario probabilities, definitions, sources, and limitations.
Direct answer: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) is positioned favorably in the specialty biopharmaceutical sector, supported by the continued commercial growth of Lupkynis for lupus nephritis. The company exhibits exceptional operational execution, evidenced by an 8-quarter earnings beat streak, an average EPS surprise exceeding +40%, and upwardly revised guidance for FY2026. Trading near $16.65 with a market capitalization of $2.3B, AUPH offers an attractive risk/reward profile as revenue expands toward an expected 17.4% annual growth trajectory. While medium-to-long-term performance requires navigating single-asset concentration and future patent expirations, near-to-mid-term fundamentals indicate significant upside potential driven by organic uptake, ex-US commercial royalties, and potential M&A interest. The saved 1-year distribution is P10 $13.5, P50 $19.5, and P90 $25.2.
Last analyzed · Model: gemini-3.8-flash
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Forecast data
| Estimate | 1-year price | Meaning |
|---|
| P10 | $13.5 | Pessimistic plausible scenario |
| P50 | $19.5 | Median scenario |
| P90 | $25.2 | Optimistic plausible scenario |
What the numbers mean
P10, P50, and P90 are model-generated scenario estimates: roughly a pessimistic plausible outcome, a median outcome, and an optimistic plausible outcome. They are not calibrated confidence intervals.
Supporting analysis
Aurinia demonstrates strong commercial execution for Lupkynis, evidenced by an 8-quarter earnings beat streak and recent upward revisions to revenue guidance. Robust 17.4% top-line growth and a +41.3% average EPS surprise provide solid near-term fundamental support.
Sources and limitations
Market and company inputs are primarily sourced through Yahoo Finance and public financial-data interfaces. This page reports a saved AI-generated scenario analysis as of the timestamp above; it is not live data, audited probability, financial advice, or a guaranteed return.
Frequently asked questions
When was this AUPH analysis generated?
October 31, 2026.
Is this a guaranteed AUPH prediction?
No. It is a model-generated scenario assessment with material uncertainty.
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The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.